The Best Poker Strategy Advice From The Art of War

This article was written by blackrain79.com contributor Fran Ferlan.

“Poker is war. People pretend it is a game.” – Doyle Brunson

With more than half a century of poker experience, Texas Dolly sure knows what
he is talking about. Poker is war, albeit of a more civilized sort.

And war, war never changes. So why not learn the lessons from the most famous
war manual that has stood the test of time and apply them on the felt?

The Art of War
is an ancient Chinese military tractate written close to two and a half
millennia ago, and is traditionally credited to a military strategist known as
Sun Tzu. 

It has been studied to this day not just by the military, but by many
businessmen, athletes, politicians and so on.

 

Its timeless lessons are useful and applicable wherever there is conflict. And
if you’re dealing with people in any endeavour, there will always be conflict.

So let’s look at those lessons and see if we can take them to the felt to
crush any and all opposition, be it external or internal.

1. Know Your Edge

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a
hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory
gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor
yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” – Sun Tzu

What makes poker profitable? The fact that everyone thinks they know how to
play. And it’s true. Poker is an incredibly simple game to learn, but
incredibly difficult to master. 

Most people never go past the surface level understanding of the game. In
fact, most people don’t really understand it’s a skill game in the first
place. It’s a card game after all, so how could it possibly be about anything
other than luck?

So those that know that it’s all about skill in the long run are the only ones
that are actually able to make money. That’s why there are professional poker
players, yet there are no professional blackjack or bingo players. 

Poker is all about awareness. To quote the great
Daniel Negreanu, you have to understand that everything you do at the poker table conveys
information. 

If you are aware of your own strengths and weaknesses, you have a huge leg up
on the competition, but that’s only one piece of the puzzle. Knowing the rules
and the winning strategy in theory will only get you so far.

This is something that Nathan “BlackRain79″ Williams actually specifically discusses in his latest video:

The key point here though is, if you’ve mastered the fundamentals, the next
step is understanding the opponents you’re up against. 

Are they a fish or a regular? Are they too loose/tight, too
passive/aggressive? What are their weaknesses, and how can I exploit
them? 

What is the best strategy to use against them individually, as well as against
the table as a whole? How do they perceive me, and how can I use it to my
advantage? 

One wonderful thing about poker is that the more you immerse yourself in it,
the more you recognize how deeply complex the game is. 

The more you learn, the more you realize how much you actually don’t know.
This is the paradox of knowledge. 

Think about the time you only started playing poker. How did you make your
decisions? How many factors did you take into consideration? I’m guessing very
few.

Then you started learning about playing in position, pot odds and implied
odds, outs and equity, board textures, stack-to-pot ratio, bet sizing, hand
ranges and so on and so forth. And these are just the basics. 

Today you’re taking all of this information in account and then some, often
not even realizing it consciously. 

Now consider your average fish. How many variables do they take into account
when making their decisions? Hopefully, far less than you. And this is where
your edge lies.

Your winnings are the sum total of all your edges played out over a huge
sample size. 

So if you know yourself and you know your opponents, and can recognize your
skill edge over them, you need not fear the result of a hundred
coinflips. 

2. Adapt to Your Surroundings to Stay Ahead

“Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which
it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he
is facing.” – Sun Tzu

What is the best poker winning strategy? Tight and aggressive? Loose and
aggressive? Something else entirely?

It’s none of those things, and all of those things at the same time. 

There are simply way too many variables to consider at any given hand, so
there is no one-size-fits all strategy for every situation.

The best strategy is therefore one of adaptability. You will never play the
same poker hand twice. What works on one table, won’t work on another.

So in order to stay ahead, you need to constantly adapt to your surroundings.
And if you adapt successfully, your more cognizant opponents might adapt to
your adaptation and so on. 

There’s no such thing as standing still. 

That’s what makes poker such an incredibly dynamic game, so it’s your job to
always stay one step ahead of the competition. 

The biggest winners in the game aren’t those who play perfectly balanced
ranges at all times and are utterly unexploitable, but the ones that are
perfectly adaptable in relation to their opponents. 

They recognize their individual strengths and weaknesses, and use them to
maximize their profit. 

Now, that’s not to say that there will be situations where the best tactic
will in fact be to have perfectly balanced ranges at all times, but that’s
also being adaptable in relation to your opponents. 

You have to remember, however, that you are in fact playing against living,
breathing humans. Nobody plays perfectly 100% of the time, and everybody has
leaks in their game. 

Some less than others, but they still have them. You just have to dig a bit
deeper to find them. 

Improvise, adapt, overcome.
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3. Make No Mistakes And You Will Win

“He wins the battle by making no mistakes. Making no mistakes is what
establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that
is already defeated.” – Sun Tzu 

Here is a thought to have at the forefront of your mind every time you sit
down at the table: Most of the money you win won’t be the direct result of
your superior skills, but of the inadequacies of your opponents. 

When playing poker, your goal should not be to outplay your opponents. That’s
fighting a losing battle. You should let them try to outplay you.

The secret to winning in poker is actually very simple: don’t make any
mistakes. It’s easier said than done, of course, but there really is nothing
more to it. 

But how can you get to the point of not making any mistakes? Well, that’s
simple, too. By making a lot of mistakes. 

I think the great Danish physicist Niels Bohr put it best: “An expert is a person who has made all the
mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.”

The trick is to actually learn from your mistakes. Let’s face it, we all make
all kinds of asinine plays from time to time. Some more than others. 

And we’re often flabbergasted with our own idiocy. 

How many times have you said to yourself something along the lines of: How the
hell could I have been so stupid? Or: I knew he had it, why the f!@# did I
call him down? 

It’s normal to be critical of yourself in those kinds of situations. 

You have a feeling that you should have known better by now. But it’s all a
part of the learning process. If you know you made a mistake, that’s a lot
better than not knowing you’ve made one.

It takes a great deal of repetition and deliberate practice to get to the
point of just knowing what to do effortlessly. It takes a lot longer than many
people realize. 

Knowledge is difficult. And the learning curve is not a straight line. It’s
more of a zig-zaggy, one step forward, two steps back kind of line. 

So if you make a mistake, it simply means that your skill is not so far ahead
on the learning curve you assumed, and you haven’t really mastered it yet, but
that’s ok. You are getting closer one mistake at a time. 

As long as you learn from the experience, it’s not really a mistake, but a
learning opportunity. 

If you never ever make any mistakes, it doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve
mastered something. It’s more likely that you’re just not improving and
challenging yourself. And that’s a mistake in and of itself. 

4. Pick Your Battles

“The wise warrior avoids the battle.” – Sun Tzu

This one may seem counterintuitive at a first glance, but if you think about
it, it makes a lot of sense. Winning poker is not only about winning huge
pots, but also about losing as little as necessary.

The sum total of the two determine your long term profitability, and both are
equally important.

Beginner poker players often don’t realize this, and that’s why they play way
more hands than they should. After all, how could you hope to win if you don’t
play? 

They think that folding is weak, so they play too many hands, and stay in the
hand longer than they should. Just play all the hands, you can’t miss them
all, right? 

Of course, as any decent player knows, playing too many hands in poker is just
about one of the worst things you can do. 

In fact, as
Pareto principle
would suggest, about 80% of all your winnings will come from only the top 20%
of hands. 

Winning poker is about picking your spots, not just hoping to smash the flop,
because mathematically speaking, you’ll miss far more often than not. And you
can’t outrun math.

When the odds are against you, you should do everything you can to hedge your
bets, instead of throwing your money in with a mathematical disadvantage. If
you do that, you might as well go play the lottery. 

You should also consider the opponents you’re up against, as mentioned
previously. If you’re up against decent, thinking players, sometimes the best
play is not to play at all. 

If you don’t expect them to make a lot of mistakes, and you don’t make any
mistakes, you’re basically just trading the money back and forth, while the
house takes their cut. 

You should always get involved with some kind of edge, be it better cards,
position, or superior skill (hopefully all three). If none of the factors are
working in your favour, wait for a better spot.

So next time you are dealt a marginal hand out of position in a multiway pot,
for example, stop and consider is it profitable to get involved, and do the
potential benefits outweigh the risks. 

Are you putting yourself in a profitable situation, or will you just throw
money away most of the time? 

Pick your spots, pick your battles, and the rest will take care of itself.

5. Don’t Be Afraid to Mix it Up

“In battle, there are not more than two methods of attack – the direct and
the indirect; yet these two in combination give rise to an endless series of
maneuvers.” – Sun Tzu

There are two lines you can take in every spot you play, aggressive lines like
betting, raising, and reraising, and passive lines like checking, calling and
folding. 

But the number of combinations you can take throughout the hand are
immeasurable. You should be aware of them at all times, and try to take the
most profitable line in every spot. 

This can only be done if you look at the bigger picture. You shouldn’t just
choose what to do on one street, but consider the future streets as well.
Then, and only then can you make the most +EV decisions. 

The players that consider more options give themselves more ways to win. If
you are only calling or folding, you can’t expect to be a winning player.
Think of it this way, would you rather have two bullets in a gunfight, or
six? 

The more lines you can think of and pull off, the harder you’ll be to play
against. If you’re doing the same things over and over, you’re going to become
predictable very soon. 

Even if your strategy is winning you money for some time, your opponents might
adjust and start exploiting you. You have to be willing to mix it up here and
there.

If you are mostly c-betting the flop for value, for example, you might want to
try an occasional check-raise, or a delayed c-bet instead. 

If you fold a lot from the big blind, you can 3-bet light against steal
attempts from time to time. There’s no such thing as a standard play. Playing ABC poker can only get you
so far as BlackRain79 discusses in this video:Keep expanding your knowledge, and don’t be afraid to try something
unconventional every so often. 

Give yourself the permission to try something creative. When you get the
fundamentals down you have to keep pushing the envelope. There is room for
creativity in poker. 

There are possibilities for those who are willing to search for them. You
probably won’t discover some groundbreaking new strategy, but that’s not the
goal. 

The goal is to start seeing the opportunities you might have missed before. If
nothing else, you’ll make yourself a more difficult adversary, and that’s not
to be underestimated. 

6. Be the One to Dictate the Tempo

“The clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the
enemy’s will to be imposed on him.” – Sun Tzu

This one is all about thinking proactively instead of reactively. 

When you play reactively, you’re not really in control of the outcome. And
since we can’t always control the outcome when playing poker, it doesn’t
really make sense to relinquish the control we do have.

Players who play passively are at the mercy of the pace their opponents
dictate. If you just check or call most of the time, you let your opponents
dictate the price of the hand. 

They basically say: if you want to get involved, this is how much it will cost
you. You become their customer, instead of the other way around.

Now, that’s not to say that you should be betting and raising every chance you
get and try to bulldoze your way to victory. While it may work in the short
term, it’s hardly an optimal strategy. 

It’s antithetical to the previous tips about biding your time and picking your
battles. 

If you respond to aggression to mindless aggression of your own, you are still
reacting to your opponents and let them set the pace.

So how do you play proactively? By not merely playing every spot in a vacuum
and responding to your opponent’s action street by street, but by looking
ahead and considering all the possible outcomes.

For example, you call a flop c-bet just because and then fold to a double
barrel on the turn. 

The proactive approach would be to first consider all the previous action and
available info, try to estimate their range, ask what would happen if I call
or raise, what kind of action do I expect on future streets, which turn cards
would help me and which would favour their range and so on. 

7. Preparation is Half the Battle

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors
go to war first and then seek to win.” – Sun Tzu

Consistently winning poker players set themselves up to succeed even before
they even sit down to play. This is going to be a little long-winded, but bear
with me on this one. 

Consider an elite athlete for a second. What do they do prior to the big
game? 

Are they partying non-stop, living it up, and then just show up and sweep the
competition thanks to their godlike abilities and innate talent? 

Or are they working their ass off in the gym, practicing rigorously, watching
what they eat, and getting sufficient amounts of sleep every single day? 

On top of that, they are intensely focused on their craft, watch game tapes,
devise strategies with their coaches and teammates, maybe even meditate and
overall look for every tiny edge they can in order to get a leg up on their
competition. 

When you are competing at a world class level, every little thing counts and
adds up. 

Those that are willing to go the extra mile are the ones that eventually rise
to the top, propped up by the right amount of fortune at the right time. 

Poker is no different in that regard, except the fortune factor is far more
pronounced in the short term. But over a long enough timeframe, all those
little edges will add up, and the best will rise to the top. 

But being the best isn’t all about being exceptionally talented or
exceptionally fortunate. It certainly doesn’t hurt, but it’s not the whole
recipe.

There’s always going to be someone more talented, and fortunes won’t always
favour you. When those things inevitably happen and you hit a brick wall, grit
is what will keep you moving forward. 

And when it comes to actual game time, make sure you are the best poker player
at the table before even sitting down to play. 

Know that you’ve worked harder on your game off the felt than anyone else, and
there is nothing you are not prepared for, including a gruelling string of
never ending bad beats and suck-outs. 

Practice proper game selection and seat selection, make sure you are properly
bankrolled for the stakes you play (the bigger bankroll, the better), and
study off the felt to fix your leaks.

It also goes without saying that you shouldn’t play drunk, high, tired, tilted
or otherwise emotionally compromised in any way, shape or form.
In short, approach the game like a poker pro does, and you will get world class results.

8. No Guts, No Glory

“If you fight with all your might,  there is a chance of life; whereas
death is certain if you cling to your corner.” – Sun Tzu

One final tip for all you tournament players out there. Sometimes you just
have to roll the dice. 

Tournament poker is about survival. And the only way to survive is to
constantly fight to stay ahead of shallower and shallower stacks. So you can’t
just wait out your way to the final table.

In fact, this is exactly the key to winning poker tournaments: to play
aggressively around the bubble. This is where most of the players will clam
up, and here you should attack relentlessly. 

You should try to steal the blinds frequently, and recognize the players who
don’t defend and are too tight. If you are shortstacked, you should play
fold-shove strategy. 

If you’re deep-stacked, you should exert maximum pressure to medium-to short
stacked weak opponents. 

The goal is to set yourself as the chip leader going into the final table,
instead of barely making it with a few blinds behind. The top three finishes
have disproportionately big rewards, as opposed to eighth or ninth place, for
example. BlackRain79 discusses this final table ICM strategy in much more detail in this article.

So if you actually want to win a tournament instead of just making it to the
money, you’ll have to be willing to risk your tournament life at any
time. 

Sure, there will be times when laying low and biding your time is the correct
approach, but it can’t be the only approach. 

Remember you’re playing no-limit poker, so your whole stack is on the line all
the time, and with it your tournament life. Guard it carefully, but also be
willing to lose it any second. And you might just win it all.

Summary

Poker is war, except the battles are fought with chips instead of tanks and
cannon fodder. 

It’s a civilized form of warfare, and it’s absolutely beautiful. If played
responsibly, only your feelings and your wallet can get hurt, so it’s hardly
the end of the world. 

But in order not to get our feelings or our wallets hurt, we need to win, and
in order to win, we might want to heed the lessons of poker pros who played quite
higher stakes than most of us will (hopefully) ever need to.

It all starts with our awareness. Poker is profitable to the select group of
people who not only know the game inside out, but know how their opponents
think, feel and act. 

Your average fish on the other hand, doesn’t even know how little they
actually know. 

So if you’re aware of your own skill edge, as well as the inadequacies of your
opponents, there is nothing to fear, not even the never ending swings of
fortunes.

When you can read your opponents, you can adapt to their play style
effortlessly and always stay up one step ahead of them. 

There is no such thing as standing still. You have to keep moving and keep
adapting, otherwise you will get left behind.

You should also keep trying to improve and work on fixing your leaks off the
felt. 

The elite world class professionals didn’t get to the top by having a sixth
sense or some godlike innate talent, but by studying the game reverently and
practicing deliberately for an insane number of hours over many years. 

And they made way more mistakes on the way than most of us ever will. That’s
what made them experts.

Speaking of mistakes, one of the best ways to avoid them is to not put
yourself in the position to make them in the first place. 

This means being selective about spots we decide to get involved in. A lot of
beginner poker players simply play too many hands, stay in them too long, and
donate way too much money. 

Sometimes the only winning play is not to play at all. 

However, you also miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. So you will have to
go out of your comfort zone from time to time. 

This means experimenting with different lines, and letting go of the notions
of “standard play”. 

If you make a standard play every time, you will have standard results. And a
standard result for an average poker player is actually losing money. 

If you don’t tilt and make huge costly mistakes, you can expect to be a
breakeven or a slightly winning player.

So don’t be afraid to get creative here and there. You might end up with the
conclusion that the “standard play” was the correct one all along, but that’s
also part of the learning process. 

If you don’t ever mix it up, you’re stultifying your progress as a player, and
might get …

Women’s CL last-16: Chelsea draw Atleti; Man City vs Fiorentina


Chelsea have been drawn against Atletico Madrid in the Women’s Champions League last 16 while Manchester City face Fiorentina.WSL leaders Chelsea will come up against a familiar face in Toni Duggan with the England international helping Atletico knock Manchester City out of the tournament at the same stage last season.
Emma Hayes’ side, semi-finalists in 2018 and 2019, have been in stunning form over the past year, going on a record-breaking 33-game unbeaten run which was only recently ended by a shock home defeat to Brighton.Meanwhile, Gareth Taylor’s City will also play their first leg at home, against a Fiorentina side that finished second in Serie A last season but is off the pace this term, lying fourth and 16 points off pacesetters Juventus.City, semi-finalists in 2017 and 2018, will also be buoyed by the fact the Italians were beaten 6-0 on aggregate by Arsenal in last season’s competition.
Holders Lyon, who have won a record seven titles and made it five in a row last season, face Danish side Brøndby.
The only other past champions still in the competition is Wolfsburg who face Norwegian side LSK Kvinner – the former club of interim England head coach Hege Riise
First legs are scheduled to be played between March 3 and 4, with the return fixtures expected to take place between March 10 and 11.The final will be played at Gothenburg’s Gamla Ullevi stadium on May 16.

Image:
Manchester City were knocked out of the competition at the Round of 16 stage by Atletico Madrid and Toni Duggan last season

Full draw as follows: Wolfsburg (GER) vs LSK Kvinner (NOR)Barcelona (ESP) vs Fortuna Hjørring (DEN)Rosengård (SWE) vs St. Pölten (AUT)BIIK-Kazygurt (KAZ) vs Bayern München (GER)Manchester City (ENG) vs Fiorentina (ITA)Sparta Praha (CZE) vs Paris Saint-Germain (FRA)Lyon (FRA) vs Brøndby (DEN)Chelsea (ENG) vs Atlético de Madrid (ESP)Watch the Women’s Football Show on Friday at 6pm on Sky Sports Football.

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Thousands of jobs available at tribal casinos


With millions of Americans out of work, the first sign of a recovery has to be in new jobs coming on the market. The tribal gaming industry is doing its part, with several operators posting new jobs in the past few weeks.Seneca Gaming Corporation has lots of jobs available at the Seneca Niagara Resort & Casino in Niagara Falls and Seneca Buffalo Creek Casino in downtown Buffalo. The operator will be hosting a job fair for open positions on February 25 between 10:00am and 6:00pm.“Even with the changes and challenges everyone has gone through over the past year, Seneca Gaming Corporation has remained one of the largest employers in Western New York, and we are excited to be growing our team across a variety of departments,” said Meghan Smith, Seneca Gaming Corporation’s vice president of human resources. “We truly believe that the time we spend at work should be rewarding, fulfilling and fun. That’s how we approach our jobs every day. If people are looking an opportunity in that type of environment, we are ready to talk to them.”Attendees can check out what’s on offer in person or virtually, but should be ready for an interview at a moment’s notice.On the other side of the country, the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians are also on the look out for fresh talent. That operator has more than 500 jobs to fill, with as many as 2000 coming for the rest of the year. They’ll be having their virtual career fair on February 18 from 9:00am to 4:00pm.“The expansion of San Manuel will offer an economic boost to the local job market at a time when it is really needed,” said Brigitte Saria, Chief People and Infrastructure Officer. “Our efforts to boost the local economy are guided by our commitment to ensuring our employment process and work environment follow leading health and safety standards.”The Chukchansi Gold Resort and Casino in Coarsegold, California are also hiring. The tribe is looking for 50 full-time and part-time positions, and will have a job fair on February 23 from 10:00am to 1:00pm.Add those jobs to the 150 that Oneida Nation Enterprises were offering as of last week, and there’s a lot to be hopeful for about the future of the economy, and particularly that of tribal gaming.Connecticut tribes close to new dealGovernor Ned Lamont wants sports betting in his state, and he needs a new deal with the tribes to get it done. He used his budget address to emphasize the push:“My administration has been in active negotiations with our tribal partners to bring the state’s gaming economy into the digital age. And I am submitting legislation which reflects what I believe to be the best bet in ending this stalemate of inaction in a way which is in the best interest [of] the entire state.”Construction resumes at Four WindsThe Pokagon Band of Potawatomi Indians’ contractor recently resumed building a hotel at Four Winds South Bend Casino. Construction slowed down significantly due to Covid-19.The new 23-story hotel was originally due to be completed this year. But with construction crews only working on the foundation now after a 10-month delay, maybe 2022 seems more accurate.

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Daniil Medvedev Finds Another Way of Playing Professional Tennis


At 23, Rublev is two years younger than Medvedev and grew up playing junior tournaments against him in Russia. For a long time Rublev, seeded No. 8, and Karen Khachanov, 24, the third member of Russia’s latest golden generation, were better than Medvedev. The rise for Medvedev came in 2018 and 2019, when he nearly beat Rafael Nadal in the 2019 United States Open final.“He reads the game really well,” Rublev said of Medvedev. “It’s amazing, the patience he has to stay so long in the rallies, to not rush, to take the time, because in the end these little details, they make him who he is.”Russia is the only country with two players in the top 10. Khachanov gives it three in the top 20. Aslan Karatsev, 27, another Russian ranked No. 114, came out of nowhere to make the quarterfinals here in his first Grand Slam tournament.Medvedev comes into the quarterfinal on perhaps the best roll of his career. He has won 18 consecutive singles matches. He won the ATP Tour finals in London in November, pulling off the nifty trick of beating the world’s top three players — Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Dominic Thiem — in a single tournament. For Russia at the ATP Cup, he beat Alexander Zverev of Germany, a 2020 U.S. Open finalist, in a tight, three-set match in the semifinal round.Medvedev spent his early childhood in Moscow and played few sports other than tennis growing up. He worshiped Russia’s last golden generation, which included Marat Safin and Yevgeny Kafelnikov, who were in their prime when he was a young child. He moved to France to train as a teenager and became fluent in English and French.Medvedev could be heard screaming at his coach, Gilles Cervara of France, in French during his third-round match against Filip Krajinovic of Serbia, as he frittered away a two-set lead before recovering to win the final set, 6-0.

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Did the next Macau bubble just start two weeks ago?


The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.

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My Confession: Male, Age 21 (AUSTRALIA)


Let me give you some valuable background info first: I live at home with my Dad & my girlfriend (she’s between houses). They’re both my best friends. I am currently going through a chronic pain type disorder that appeared in both wrists & forearms since July 2020. In & out of appointments/checks every fortnight. I am unable to do much in my day, it hurts to do normal things in my day – so I am unable to work or study anymore. Painkillers are not helping. Thursday was the day, the day I basically lost my entire life savings. Since then, I’ve been using every single dollar I can get my hands on to recover this loss & I’m sure you know where I’m at now. $8 in debt & unemployed with no income. But how did I get here? I got caught gambling when I was 17/18, lost all my money then too but it was less than $1000 (my Dad was the only one who knew). Since then, I vowed to never gamble again & I didn’t until 2 weeks ago. My Dad & I were watching the cricket & he placed a $100 multi (he rarely gambles) & won $450. We both thought this was great so I put in $50 myself for the next game. I ended up losing $25 & won it back in the darts later on. I then decided to move on & not do any more as my girlfriend of 2 years (the one I’ll marry) did not approve of me gambling again. So I stopped – until my Dad persuaded me to lie & just gamble anyway behind her back. It was innocent losses, $5-$10 here & there for the next 2 weeks. It wasn’t until last week, the day after my girlfriend’s birthday, that everything went downhill. She had to work Wed & Thu which left me to be alone for 2 days. I was very down in the dumps & just felt like I had all this money & didn’t use it (which is the stupidest thing ever, I know). So I started gambling on the races. With high $1000 bets & spent hours & hours, got up $10k then back down to $5k before I bet my whole bank to get back where I started at $15k. I stopped, went in my room & realised what I did, I almost lost my ENTIRE bank. Did I stop there? Nope, you guessed it. Eventually, one thing led to another & now I’m $15k down & $9 in debt. I confessed everything to my girlfriend & Dad on Thursday. Which they were both very supportive. I had $2000 in my bank then & said I’d stop. But I didn’t, Iost $1500 yesterday & $500 today. So yes in $9 debt. Although I do not have an addiction (oddly enough I studied psychology for 2 years before this chronic pain stopped me), I have definitely fallen into the trap of gambling once again & I only risked losing my last $2000 to not win the money back, but rather I looked at it as an outlet to make money so I can provide my girlfriend & I with a future. But this was such a bad mindset to approach everything. $9 in debt. I am stopping here. I vow to, right here, right now. I have not told my girlfriend or Dad about the last $2000, but I think I will hang onto this one for now as I can make that back in selling some of my collectables that have been collecting profit over the years. So thank god for that at least. Additionally, I may receive a pension for my condition so if that’s approved, must lock my money away. I had to get all this out & it has put me in an awful lot of PHYSICAL pain to even write this due to my chronic pain condition. I don’t expect anyone to read this all as this is rather for me. Thank you. C. submitted by /u/codesfrost [comments]

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Root: Pitch not to blame for England defeat


England captain Joe Root says team “outplayed” by India on tough surface as they lose second Test by 317 runs; skipper feels his men can learn from the way the hosts found control with the ball and batted calmly; third Test in Ahmedabad from February 24

Last Updated: 16/02/21 10:01am

0:56

England captain Joe Root says his squad must not get too down about their heavy defeat in the second Test against India.

England captain Joe Root says his squad must not get too down about their heavy defeat in the second Test against India.

Joe Root refused to blame the spin-friendly Chennai pitch for England’s thumping defeat to India in the second Test – and has urged his side to learn from the difficult conditions they faced.
England were spun out for 134 and 164 at MA Chidambaram Stadium on a dusty surface as India wrapped up a 317-run victory on day four to level the four-match series at 1-1.Rohit Sharma and Ravichandran Ashwin completed hundreds for India and Root says the hosts showed England a template for scoring runs on unhelpful tracks for batsmen. Root says his side must learn from the challenging conditions they faced in Chennai (Pic credit – BCCI) “I wouldn’t say it was a good pitch but it made for very exciting cricket and it was not the reason we lost the game. We were outplayed in all three departments,” said the England skipper.”For us, it’s a bit of an education. It was a surface that spun a huge amount and bounced more than we anticipated but we should take that as a learning and be better for it the next time we experience conditions that are similar.”The toss was an important one to win – but it wouldn’t have guaranteed us a win either. India showed you can score runs and found a way of managing a very tricky surface.”Our batters need to learn from how India rotated strike, while what I took from how they played was how calm and unflustered they were. When a delivery really misbehaved, they didn’t waver from their game-plan.” Ravichandran Ashwin (pictured) and Rohit Sharma scored centuries for India in the second Test (Pic credit – BCCI) Root – whose side will be looking to bounce back in the day-night third Test in Ahmedabad from February 24 with their six-match winning streak in overseas Tests having been snapped – also felt his bowlers could have been more frugal on day one when India reached 300-6 after electing to bat.”We have to find ways of building pressure for long periods of time with the ball, bowling six balls at one batter, which India made very difficult for us.”Can we string maidens together and force wickets through very disciplined passages of play? I think India did that better than us.”On day one we could probably have been a bit tighter and squeezed the game, making it hard for them to score freely. The four-match Test series is tied at 1-1 heading into the third Test, a day-night fixture in Ahmedabad from February 24 “We have to learn from the opposition, who played very well, but we are 1-1 in the series and there are two very important games to come.”We are very excited about that because of how well we played in the first game. We are very much in this series. It’s set up very nicely.”We have to stay level. We don’t get above our station when we win and it’s not all doom and gloom when we have tough weeks.”It is very important we stay level as a team. We have to learn but that is one thing we have done well in recent times so hopefully we can take that into the rest of the series.” 0:52 Root says he understands Moeen Ali’s decision to leave England’s bio-secure bubble and return home to his family Root says he understands Moeen Ali’s decision to leave England’s bio-secure bubble and return home to his family Root – who also confirmed that all-rounder Moeen Ali will miss the rest of the series having opted to fly home – said Ben Stokes only bowled two overs in the game for tactical reasons, not due to injury.”Ben is fit and able to bowl but, on that surface, you look at the overs of seam bowled and it was minimal,” said Root.”I’m sure Ben will have an impact on this series with the ball as he did in the first game. He can grab big moments and turn them on their head.”Pressed on whether he wanted to include the rested James Anderson, who had starred with a scintillating spell of reverse-swing bowling on day five of the first Test, Root added: “It was discussed. “But we need to look at the series as a whole. The pink-ball game looks an exciting opportunity for someone like him to have a real impact.”Follow text commentary of the day-night third Test between India and England in Ahmedabad on skysports.com and the Sky Sports app from 8.30am on Wednesday, February 24.

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เมื่อมองย้อนกลับไปสิ่งนั้นน่าจะชัดเจน ลิเวอร์พูลได้รับ 196 คะแนนในสองฤดูกาลที่ใกล้จะสมบูรณ์แบบคว้าแชมป์แรกในรอบ 30 ปีและเป็นแชมป์ยุโรปและแชมป์โลกตลอดเส้นทาง นั่นจะเป็นไปไม่ได้ถ้าทุก ๆ ด้านของทีมทำงานได้อย่างสมบูรณ์แบบ ความตื่นเต้นที่มาพร้อมกับการที่ธิอาโก้อัลคันทารามาที่แอนฟิลด์นั้นมุ่งเน้นไปที่สิ่งที่เขาสามารถเพิ่มให้กับทีมได้ หวังเป็นอย่างยิ่งว่านกกระสาตัวนี้จะสามารถเพิ่มมิติใหม่ให้กับการเล่นเกมรุกของ Jurgen Klopp แต่บางทีอาจจำเป็นต้องตระหนักให้มากขึ้นว่าลิเวอร์พูลจะเสียอะไรเช่นกัน กองกลางไม่เคยมีปัญหา แต่เป็นเครื่องยนต์ การทำงานอย่างไม่หยุดยั้งของฟาบินโญ่, จอร์แดนเฮนเดอร์สันและจอร์จินิโอไวจ์นัลดุมกลับมาเป็นเจ้าของสำหรับฟูลแบ็คที่โจมตีต่อเนื่อง เมื่อเทรนต์อเล็กซานเดอร์ – อาร์โนลด์และแอนดรูว์โรเบิร์ตสันพูดต่อ ความคิดสร้างสรรค์ได้รับการว่าจ้างจากภายนอก แต่ก็ไม่เคยขาด ตั้งแต่นั้นเป็นต้นมา Shiago ไม่ควรกลายเป็นแพะรับบาปสำหรับความพยายามของทีม มีตัวแปรอื่น ๆ อีกมากมายชิ้นส่วนที่เคลื่อนไหวมากเกินไปในเครื่องจักรที่เคยหล่อลื่นนี้เพื่อระบุเหตุผลเดียวของการลดลงที่ทำให้ลิเวอร์พูลกังวลมากขึ้นเกี่ยวกับการอยู่ในอันดับ 4 คือการป้องกันตำแหน่งแชมป์พรีเมียร์ลีกได้สำเร็จ สถิติหัวล้านบอกเล่าเรื่องราว ผ่านไปเกือบ 4 ปีโดยไม่แพ้แม้แต่เกมเดียวที่แอนฟิลด์พวกเขาพ่ายแพ้ 3 ครั้งติดต่อกัน ธิอาโก้เริ่มเยอะ ลิเวอร์พูลชนะเพียงสองในเก้าเกมที่เขาเริ่มต้นและนั่นยังไม่รวมถึงความพ่ายแพ้ต่อเลสเตอร์ 3-1 เมื่อวันเสาร์ที่เขาเข้ามาในนาทีที่ 17 2:55 ดูฟรี: โดดเด่นในการชนะเลสเตอร์กับลิเวอร์พูลในพรีเมียร์ League, Thiago ดิ้นรนอย่างหนักโดยไม่มีบอลถูกเจมี่คาร์ราเกอร์ตราหน้าว่าเป็น “ฝ่ายรับ” ทีมลิเวอร์พูลที่มีธิอาโก้ในตำแหน่งกองกลางไม่ได้ใช้งาน คุณภาพที่คุ้นเคยยังคงแสดงให้เห็นอย่างชัดเจน การจ่ายบอลตาบอดเหล่านั้นซึ่งมักจะวางลงเท้าของกองหน้ากระตุ้นให้ลิเวอร์พูลบุกทะลวงการป้องกันและทำให้เขาถูกกล่าวหาอย่างไม่เป็นธรรมว่าชะลอการโจมตี เขาเก็บบอลเคลื่อนที่เล่นกว้างและมองหาการจ่ายบอลที่ถูกต้องอยู่เสมอ แต่มีการรับรู้ว่าการปรากฏตัวของเขายังทำลายการป้องกันของลิเวอร์พูล โค้ชหมายเลข 30 เขาดูเหมือนผู้เล่นที่ต่อสู้กับจังหวะของเกมรอบตัวเขาในขณะที่คู่ต่อสู้กำลังเปลี่ยนไป เขากลายเป็นผู้เล่นฟาล์วต่อเนื่องการสกัดกั้นการตอบโต้ไม่ใช่เรื่องใหม่สำหรับธิอาโก้ คาดว่าเขาจะทำหน้าที่นั้นที่บาเยิร์นมิวนิกด้วย แต่ทีมของเขาสามารถควบคุมสิ่งนั้นได้ดีกว่าในบุนเดสลีกา ที่ลิเวอร์พูลเขาถูกทิ้งบ่อยเกินไปแสดงให้เห็นในตัวเลขว่าธิอาโก้ทำผิดพลาดมากกว่าที่เคยทำผิดเกือบสองเท่าในช่วงสี่ปีที่ผ่านมาในบาเยิร์น นิสัยที่ไม่เป็นมิตรนี้เกือบทำให้ลิเวอร์พูลได้รับการลงโทษจากเลสเตอร์ในขณะที่เขาเหยียดขาออกไปที่ขอบกรอบโดยไม่จำเป็น การตัดสินใจถูกพลิกกลับในการพิจารณาใหม่ แต่ฟรีคิกยังส่งผ่าน Alisson และเข้าไปในตาข่ายทำให้เกมพลิก ความประทับใจของ Thiago คือผู้ชายที่มีความสามารถในตัวเองเล่นได้ถึงขีด จำกัด ของความฟิตเพื่อพยายามยับยั้งชั่งใจ คู่ต่อสู้คล่องแคล่วกว่าเขาอย่างเห็นได้ชัด เขาเป็นคนจัดการเสมอ เขาพยายามมากกว่าสามครั้งในทุกๆ 90 นาทีในแต่ละห้าฤดูกาลที่ผ่านมาที่บาเยิร์นโดยพยายาม 4.7 ต่อ 90 นาทีในศึกบุนเดสลีกา 2015/16 – มากกว่า 4.5 นัดการโหม่งบอลทุกๆ 90 นาทีเมื่อเขาเป็น นักเตะลิเวอร์พูล. ความแตกต่างที่สำคัญซ่อนอยู่ในตัวเลขเหล่านี้ อัตราความสำเร็จในการโหม่งของธิอาโกในลิเวอร์พูลนั้นต่ำกว่าที่บาเยิร์นมิวนิคมาก บางทีอาจเป็นเรื่องน่ากังวลที่ความสำเร็จในการจัดการของเขาลดลงทุกปี มีกี่เปอร์เซ็นต์ที่สามารถอธิบายได้ว่าระบบของลิเวอร์พูลไม่ทำงานเหมือนที่เคยเป็นมาและผลที่ตามมาของการขาดความฟิตของธิอาโก้ที่ทำให้สูญเสียการควบคุม? ไม่ต้องสงสัยเลยว่าการปรากฏตัวของ Virgil van Dijk ซึ่ง Thiago มีเวลาเล่นเพียง 56 นาที สนามซึ่งจะช่วยให้ลิเวอร์พูลรักษาเส้นบนได้หากไม่มีอันตรายมากเกินไป ด้วยเหตุนี้ธิอาโก้จะไม่ถูกโดดเดี่ยวในตำแหน่งกองกลาง 56 นาทีรวมถึงครึ่งหลังกับเชลซีที่สแตมฟอร์ดบริดจ์เนื่องจากลิเวอร์พูลทำประตูได้สองครั้งโดยไม่มีการตอบสนองและ 11 นาทีแรกของเมอร์ซีย์ไซด์ดาร์บี้ที่กูดิสันพาร์คเมื่อพวกเขาขึ้นนำก่อน ขึ้นนำก่อนที่ฟานไดจ์คจะออกมาด้วยอาการบาดเจ็บ วันเสาร์ที่ 20 กุมภาพันธ์ 17:00 น. อุ่นเครื่อง 17:30 น. ด้วยความสามารถในการมุ่งเน้นไปที่ความแข็งแกร่งของเขาด้วยบอลที่เท้าของเขาธิอาโก้ยังคงเพิ่มบางอย่างให้กับทีมลิเวอร์พูลชุดนี้อย่างชัดเจนและใช่เป็นที่คาดหมายได้ว่าเมื่อกลับมาเสิร์ฟตามปกติ เขาจะได้รับประโยชน์ แต่ในตอนนี้ความชื่นชมที่เพิ่มมากขึ้นที่แม้แต่กองหลังอย่างธิอาโก้ผู้คุมตำแหน่งกองกลางก็เปลี่ยนระบบนิเวศที่ละเอียดอ่อนในลิเวอร์พูล 0:27 จอร์แดนเฮนเดอร์สันออกข่าวลือเรื่องการต่อสู้ในห้องแต่งตัวอย่างรวดเร็วมันยังคงเป็นหน้าที่ของกองกลางลิเวอร์พูลที่ต้องปกปิดบางส่วนในขณะที่เขากวาดตามหลัง Alexander-Arnold และ Robertson แต่ในขณะที่เกิดขึ้นกับเฮนเดอร์สันโดยธรรมชาติมันก็น่าอึดอัดสำหรับธิอาโก้ เขาไม่มีชุดทักษะที่จำเป็นสำหรับบทบาทนั้น กองกลางของลิเวอร์พูลในขณะที่ไม่เป็นที่รู้จักกันดีในฐานะผู้รักษาประตูและกองหลังหรือกองหลังหรือกองหน้าเป็นเหตุผลพื้นฐานที่ทำให้ทีมประสบความสำเร็จ มันควรจะชัดเจน

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